Living Life in the Technology Bubble

It’s a new month and our net worth has increased to $1,542,269.  That’s an increase of almost $25,000 in a month.  To say the real estate and our economy in general feels like a repeat of the 2007/2008 bubble would be a bit of an understatement.  Of course, I’m not crying myself to sleep at night with these gains, but I fully expect to see a correction, deflated bubble, etc etc at some point, so I’m just logging the numbers and am ready to start subtracting instead of adding to our net worth if that happens.  (I’m a bit of a “Permabear”)

Last weekend, I was out with a group of about 10 guys that mostly all work in the tech industry (including myself).  We were really enjoying a lot of geek type talk and as the night wore on, we found ourselves at a seedy dive bar in the Pacific Northwest.  As I looked around the place, for some reason, it occurred to me that the group of guys at our table had a combined income of something like $1.5 million a year.  I almost fell out of my chair when I realized this.  (This is a long ways from my youth of eating hot dog casserole)  While there are certainly plenty of other places in the country that this same phenomenon could have taken place (and likely did), I don’t think it’s probably a normal occurrence across the country.  Bottom line, I feel incredibly grateful that I find myself in this situation and I think that’s one of the things that drives me to save as much as I can.  Along with being a Permabear, I also try to realize that I could lose my job tomorrow and find myself in a completely different economic reality.  The more we increase our net worth, the less I worry about that.  Clearly my defensive approach to personal finance stems from a childhood where we were constantly at risk of not having enough to pay the bills.

So, month by month we continue our march towards financial independence.  It feels like a slow grind at this point but I’m grateful to have the monthly gains we’ve been seeing.  On a somewhat related note, last week I was perusing Reddit and came across a post in the “40Something” subreddit.  It was a guy in his mid 40’s talking about feeling like his 40’s seems to be just all about working.  He said there’s not much else happening in his life and he feels bored and stuck.  As I read through some of the other comments, it seemed very similar to how I’ve been feeling.  I’m sure this is where the whole idea of “midlife crisis” comes from.  Some of the posts said things like, “Yeah, that’s just the way it is.  Everything is set in motion and you just have another 20 years before you can retire!”.  While I was relating to most of what people were saying, as soon as I saw that I thought “Nope!”.  No way in hell I’m working another 20 years like this.  I’m so grateful I took a longer view of saving and investing and started in our 20’s.  I don’t think I can keep slogging along like this for 20 more years.

Net Worth Update – August 2017

I finally got a chance to go through all of our financial updates and was pleasantly surprised to see that our net worth is continuing it’s upward trend.  As of today our net worth is $1,517,338.  If only that was just in investment accounts, we might consider throwing in the towel and driving off in to the sunset but, alas, it’s our total net worth including our home equity and vehicles.  I’ve been tracking another figure besides our total net worth which I call our “retirement assets”.  This includes the equity we have in our primary home that we will sell when we move to our secondary home outside the city and excludes our vehicle values.  When you include that equity and our investment accounts you get a figure of $1,216,061.  Why do I do this?  Because it’s a more accurate figure of how much money we have to generate an income from.  My hope is that number will get to about $1.7M by the time my daughter goes off to college.  Once we get to $1.7M, I might actually start feeling comfortable enough to consider retiring.

One thing that I don’t include in my net worth is the value of a small pension I’ll receive from my company in retirement.  They froze it a while back so it’s not increasing in value but should provide around $1250 a month at 55 years old.  Realistically we’d like to have about $75,000 a year in retirement income once we hit 62 and that little bit of pension helps us cross the line.  When you include 1 of our social security payments (I don’t like to plan the future assuming both of us will be around forever), and then add in the small pension amount, I’m estimating that will be somewhere around $3000 a month or $36,000 a year.  That means I only have to generate about $39,000 a year from our investments, which should be a conservative figure if we can get our retirement assets up over the $1.5M mark or so.  Like I said, I’m being ultra conservative on the estimates at this point.  With a 4% withdrawal rate on $1.5M in retirement assets we’d be able to take out $60,000 a year.  Add that to the pension/SS income and we’d be up over $96,000 a year.  I’d rather plan with a 3% withdrawal rate which would give us a total income of about $81,000.  At this point, I’m still just throwing numbers and estimates around while we are in the accumulation phase of our life but it does help give me an idea of how close we are to being able to pull the trigger and retire.

Net Worth Update – June 2017

Geez!  Time flies when you’re saving money!  I just realized it’s been too long since I’ve updated the blog.  In the last 3 months we’ve continued to see our net worth increase.  The key areas we’ve seen increases are in our 401k’s and our home values.  I recently booked some of the increase we’ve seen in our escalating real estate market.  The real estate market in the Pacific Northwest is going bonkers.  It feels exactly like the market of 2008 where every month saw big increases in our home values.  We’ve now surpassed the peak of 2008 by almost 10%.  It sure does make you wonder if it will all come crashing down again.  I’m hoping that it keeps going up for the foreseeable future simply because we will likely be selling our house in about 4 years and every bit it increases or at least levels off helps our retirement “after tax” account.  Since we own our vacation house with no mortgage, we’re planning to move out there so we’ll have all the equity of this house to use towards our early retirement.

Anyway, the new net worth number is $1,447,765.  To many people that likely seems like a pretty big number.  The reality is that it’s not enough to carry us through the next 40+ years of an early retirement so we’ll continue our march toward financial independence.  Once we have about $2M in invested assets, we’ll think long and hard about pulling the trigger.  I’m continuing to watch the health care situation in the US.  It’s certainly not trending toward being helpful for early retirees.  It’s hard to believe that the politicians will really make health care crazy expensive for older citizens that haven’t hit the medicare age of 65.  If we are faced with $20,000+ health care premiums in our 50’s and early 60’s, we might have to work longer than we want to.  The other option we are still exploring is moving to the UK when we retire since both my wife and daughter are British citizens.  If we moved there, we’d likely pay more in taxes, but I think it would still be cheaper than paying all the taxes we do in the US, plus healthcare costs.  Time will tell.

Edit:  Holy moly!  I just realized that from July 2016 to June 2017 we’ve averaged a monthly net worth increase of $20,416 and we still have the rest of June to go.  Wow!

Net Worth Update – March 2017

Day after day, week after week, month after month, our net worth keeps changing.  It’s still continuing to go up, but I have to wonder if we may be in for some pretty good dips with all the things going on in the world.  I’m totally fine with a good dip as that just means I get to buy our stocks/funds at a cheaper price.  Since we’ve got a few more years ahead of us, I’d actually rather see a 25% dip and then have it slowly recover over the next 5 plus years.  Of course, I don’t get to choose what happens so we’ll just keep doing what we’re doing.

As of March 27th, our net worth has climbed to $1,369,581.  That’s actually lower than it was last month due to the stock market but it’s still significantly higher than our January number.  I’m starting to think more and more about quitting my job as soon as my daughter gets out of high school.  We currently have around $65,000 in her 529 education account and I think we’ll have somewhere around $90,000 by the time she heads to college.  While that might not cover the entire amount, we’ve told her she should expect to work a bit while in college and also pursue as many scholarships as she can.

As we get closer and closer to the day we can walk away, I’ve been thinking a lot about what we’ll do with our time.  The current plan is that we’ll sell our primary house and walk away with somewhere around $250K in equity to invest and then move out to our vacation house (that’s paid for) and live there for about 8-9 months of the year.  We’ll spend the other 3+ months of winter down in Arizona or California.  We’d like to find an inexpensive place in a 55+ community but unfortunately they don’t want us around since we’ll only be around 50-51.  I guess that’s one of the drawbacks to retiring early.  We don’t get discounts on our meals and we can’t live in the cheaper 55+ communities.  Oh well, I’m sure we’ll be able to find somewhere to stay in Arizona during the winter.  It’s a good problem to have.

What Are We Going To Do About Healthcare If We Retire Early?

Over the last 5 years or so, I’ve been getting more and more serious about retiring early.  As our assets have increased, early retirement has felt more and more possible.  My goal for the past 5 years has been to stop working at 51.  In the age of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare for the 35% of people that didn’t know they were the same thing), I was confident that our assets, along with an affordable health insurance premium, would be able to support our modest lifestyle just as it has for Justin at Root of Good and so many other early retirees.

Then November 20th happened and the Republicans took over Congress and the Executive branch.  As they’ve been saying for many years, they want to get rid of Obamacare as fast as they possibly can.  While that sounds good to many people, it’s not clear how that will change the health insurance landscape.  At this point, all we can do is wait.  Initially it sounded like we wouldn’t need to wait long to see how the Republicans will change health care, although over the last week or so, there have been various reports that they won’t bring forward a plan until late this year or some time next year.  So we wait.

So what am I going to do in the meantime?  I’m going to keep getting up and going to work each day and try to just be patient.  My initial thoughts are that I’ll likely continue working past 51 and head towards at least 55.  That will give me an additional 4 years to keep building our assets and hopefully give us enough capital that we’ll be able to cover our health care costs from 55 until we are eligible for Medicare (currently age 65, although that could also change).

As we approach our early retirement, we’ll also seriously consider moving overseas.  My wife and daughter are both British citizens so we’ve been considering moving to the UK at some point in the future.  We’ve looked in to the requirements for legally getting me over there and it would be fairly easy to get approval due to my wife and daughter being British.  Obviously moving to the UK has it’s pluses and minuses.  Our taxes would be higher than they are here, but we’d also have more predictable expenses for health care and other social services.  I think the health care would have to get pretty bad here for us to consider moving just for that but it’s always an option in the back of our heads.  Before we did anything like that, we’d also have to run the numbers.  It could very well be that we’d pay more in taxes over there than it would cost to stay in the US and just pay exorbitant health care premiums.

In a perfect world, it would be easy to anticipate our retirement expenses but since the world is far from perfect, we’ll continue to try to build a plan that can handle anything we throw at it.  That means saving as much as we possibly can now and letting that money work for us in the market until we need it.

 

New Year Net Worth Update

Well, it’s a new year and I figured I should update my net worth numbers here.  We continue to make good progress on increasing our assets.  Our net worth as of today is $1,314,233.  We’ve been making great returns with the stock market being at it’s all time high and our continued contributions and dividends continue to add to the pile.  With contributions to our various accounts and dividends, we are adding about $100,000 a year to the balance.  That doesn’t include market gains.  I haven’t calculated it all out but I think we’re actually beating my $10K a month increase that we were doing last year.

So, while this is considered the “boring accumulation phase”, it’s still very rewarding.  We’ll just keep doing what we’re doing and watch the numbers fluctuate (but hopefully continue going up).

October Net Worth Update

We continue to march forward on our net worth journey.  The last couple months were pretty average, although average has been very positive.  If we are averaging a little over a $10K increase per month, that equates to over $120K per year which is pretty fantastic.  When I’m doing rough estimates in my head, I use the $10K per month figure to estimate how many years away we are from checking out of the workplace.  While we’ve had months lower than that, and months higher than that, it usually comes out to about that average.

The main areas of NW appreciation are due to investment account contributions and company matching and also real estate appreciation.  We are in the Pacific Northwest which is seeing crazy real estate values, once again.  I’m starting to think this is turning in to San Francisco.  While I’m booking the increases in our real estate, I’m doing so very cautiously.  Earlier in our careers when I was tracking our net worth, I focused on the overall NW number which included real estate.  Now I find myself looking at just the investment accounts, because a) I don’t trust what real estate is going to do and b) You have to live somewhere!  All that being said, when thinking about our future, I usually count the equity in our main home as part of our retirement funds since we expect to move to our much smaller second home that is paid for when we retire.

Anyway, the march continues.  I spend a lot of time on the FinancialIndependence subreddit over at Reddit looking for new ideas and to hear about other people’s stories.  Other than that, it’s been a pretty boring march towards financial independence, which is pretty normal for this stage of the game.  When we were younger, it was all about learning the fundamentals and putting them in to action.  As we’ve progressed, it really comes down to self discipline and staying the course.

Atlantic Article on the Authors Financial Insecurity

I was really impressed with an article I stumbled on to in the Atlantic about an author who decided to be open and honest about his financial state.  It turns out he is like a majority of the US population: Broke and one problem away from financial disaster.  While I found it somewhat depressing that a man at his age is so “stuck”, without any retirement savings, and no end in sight for his working career, I also appreciated his candor and detailed descriptions about the choices he’s made.  I highly recommend it!

Also fascinating are the comments at the end of the article.  There were so many contributions, that the Atlantic created a whole separate “Notes” article about some of the comments that were left.

As I browsed through the comments, I found one that spoke to me.  It was about a community college art teacher that decided to devote a whole lecture on the subject of basic personal finance (even though it had nothing to do with the subject he was supposed to be teaching).  While I’ve known these things for many years and they’ve helped me to build a sizable nest egg, it was still worth looking over again.  He covers both concepts and basic “spend less than you earn” type stuff.  He was shocked to see that it was the most attended, well received class he had ever taught and it was optional for the students.  It just goes to show this stuff needs to be taught in schools at a much more detailed rate than it is now.

Net Worth Update August 2016

Well, we continue to make progress on our journey to financial independence.  I’ve got it in my head that I’m going to check out of the working world in 5 more years.  This month’s update to our net worth gives me confidence we just might be able to pull it off.

Here’s where we are at for August 2016:

Net Worth: $1,220,637

Overall we had roughly an $18,000 increase from July.  Since I didn’t do a full post in July when I updated the side bar, I think it was actually higher than an $18K gain because I did do the July update later in the month.  (I can’t remember when exactly).

When I look back at the June numbers, we saw an increase of over $42,000 over the last two months.  I’m very happy with those figures.  I’m going to try to be more consistent going forward to make sure I update the numbers right around the first of the month.

The major areas of gains for us were in our investment and retirement accounts.  I haven’t been paying attention too much to the market but I think we had a bit of an uptick lately huh?  Always happy to see that, although I still think we are going to see a correction sooner than later.  Time will tell.  (I’ve always been more of a sky is falling kind of guy).  We also booked a small increase in our home values, although that was only $5000 and I think we are still being pretty conservative on our home’s worth.

This stage of saving and investing is proving to be as boring as you might expect.  Once you have everything on autopilot, there really isn’t a ton to do each month when it comes to your finances.  Updating our net worth once a month is about as exciting as it gets.

A Conversation With A Man In A Very Different Financial Place

I had a fascinating conversation with a neighbor of mine this weekend.  I had been helping him trim some of the bushes and trees around the house and we decided to sit down and take a rest in the shade for a bit.  My neighbor, (We’ll call him John), doesn’t actually own the house.  He is living with his brother’s family in the house due to not being able to afford a place of his own.  John is 70 years old and never went to college.  He is divorced and has a couple grown children and grandchildren.  He has absolutely no savings or investments and is living off a low amount of social security.

Previously John and I have talked about money and he has asked me numerous questions.  This weekend he asked me much more pointed questions wondering how someone that is 45 years old ends up in my situation.  I had previously told him that I always pay cash for my vehicles because I don’t like debt.  He also knows that we own our second home without a mortgage and that I intend to retire around the age of 50.  As we sat in the shade, one of John’s first questions was how I ended up “being a saver”.  I told him that there were a few influences that sent me down the path I’m on.  The first was watching my parents suffer through the stress of struggling to pay the bills.  Our family owned a business when I was a kid and I helped work in the business from the time I was about 11 years old.  I would often go to work with my Dad on Sunday’s and sit behind the counter to keep him company.  By the time I was 12, I was actively helping customers.  I remember when I was about 13 years old.  I was sitting in the back office with my mom as she was paying some of the bills for the business.  I remember the stress in her voice and the concern in her eyes as she stacked bills in the “can pay” and “can’t pay” piles.  I knew that she also had a similar approach for the bills at home.  At 13 years old I remember feeling the stress of how they could pay all those bills.  I swore I never wanted to own my own business or stress about paying the bills when I grew up.  John was nodding his head while I told the story and said that he too grew up in a house with very little.  He still didn’t understand how that sent me on such a quest to try to live the opposite of that.

It was really kind of a surreal conversation because I couldn’t help but think that my future would look similar to Jack’s if we weren’t actively saving and investing for our future.  If anything, it makes me even more motivated to continue on the path we have in front of us.

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